![]() By following the framework, the user first constructs climate storylines based on an iterative analysis of what (combinations of) counterfactuals are deemed critical (i.e., downward). The framework is event-oriented, it focuses on impact and it is designed to be applied in a participatory fashion. This talk will introduce a decision-support framework to build climate storylines based on downward counterfactual histories. By constructing downward counterfactual histories in a disaster risk reduction context, some authors showed that many disasters that took societies by surprise could have in fact been anticipated. Downward counterfactual histories are plausible alternative realizations of historical events that could have turned to the worse. Climate storylines do not aim at predicting system states rather, their focus is on revealing plausible chains of events whose impact might undermine the performance of the system.Ĭonceptually, climate storylines relate to - but are separate from – downward counterfactual histories. As an alternative, they introduced the so-called climate storylines approach. Because of the unprecedented nature of these events, some authors have questioned the use of probabilistic approaches in this context. Managing extreme weather events of unprecedented magnitude is one of the main challenges facing climate risk management and climate adaptation. This session is informed by the World Climate Research Programme lighthouse activities on Safe Landing Pathways and Understanding High-Risk Events. We invite work on tipping elements/tipping points abrupt changes worst case scenarios identification of adaptation limits and the opportunities and solutions to manage the greatest risks. We welcome a wide variety of methods to quantify and understand high-impact climate events in the present and future climate, such as through model experiments and intercomparisons insights from paleo archives climate projections (including large ensembles, and unseen events) attribution studies and the development of storylines. We are interested both in these events from the perspective of the interactive earth system per se, and on their impacts, consequences, and management perspectives. ![]() We are interested in rare and low-probability heavy precipitation events, droughts, floods, storms and temperature extremes from time scales of hours to decades, including compound, cascading, and connected extremes, as well as the effect of tipping points and abrupt changes driven by climate change, societal response, or other mechanisms (e.g., volcanic eruption). This session aims to bring together the latest research on modelling, understanding and managing plausible past and future high impact climate events. ![]() In order to increase preparedness for high impact climate events, it is important to develop methods and models that are able to represent these events and the impacts from them, and to better understand how to reduce the risks. Finally, continuing warming potentially increases the risk of crossing tipping points and triggering abrupt changes. Furthermore, compound behaviour, cascading effects and complex risks are becoming evident, such as the spike in food prices induced by the effects of the war in Ukraine on top of concurrent drought across regions with subsequent crop failure. Some of these events would have arguably been nearly impossible without human-made climate change and broke records by large margins. Recent extreme events with intensities unprecedented in the observational record are causing high impacts globally, such as the heat waves in the UK, Pacific Northwest and in parts of China and severe flooding in Pakistan, Western Europe, eastern US and across China.
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